According to the January GTS (General trade system) foreign trade data, which was announced by TURKSTAT in cooperation with the Ministry of Commerce; Turkey's exports increased by 17.2% in January 2022 compared to the same period of the previous year and became 17.59 billion USD, while imports increased by 54.2% and reached 27.85 billion USD in the same period. Thus, the foreign trade deficit increased by 234.9 percent between January 2021 and January 2022 and became 10.26 billion USD. The ratio of exports to imports decreased from 83% to 63.2% in the said period.

While Germany is the country we export to the most in January, it is followed by the USA, Italy and England. Exports to 27 countries that make up the European Union increased by 13.7% and reached 7.32 billion USD, while the share of the EU in our total exports decreased from 43% to 41.6%. In import items; Russia took the first place in January 2022, followed by China, Germany and the USA. While the share of intermediate goods (raw materials) in total imports increased in January, the share of capital and consumption goods decreased. While the share of exports of high-tech products in our total exports was 2.4%, the share of the same group's imports in our total imports was 9.9%.

According to STS (Special trade system), Turkey's exports increased by 17.2% in January 2022 compared to the same period of the previous year and became 16.69 billion USD, while imports increased by 50.6% to 26.83 billion USD in the same period. The ratio of exports to imports was 62.2% in the said period.

As we enter 2022 with January, we observe the negative effects of the fragilities in foreign markets on the basis of exports and the fate of the energy bill, despite the improvement in basic factors on the basis of imports. Although the gold balance shows a decreasing effect due to the decline in imports, the energy deficit widens rapidly with the high increase in crude oil prices after January. This was the main reason for the high foreign trade deficit in January. It seems that we will continue to be exposed to this intense impact in the coming months, as energy plays a decisive role in Turkey's current foreign trade pattern. On the other hand, we observe that imports of investment and capital goods have slowed down and imports of intermediate goods continue to increase mainly due to input costs. The leading sectoral indicators and the course of global commodity prices will keep the high import cost effect on this issue alive.

There are also some new negativities in foreign demand. Although downside risks in demand were prominent due to the epidemic effect in the previous period, it is seen that current risks stem from supply chain and geopolitical tensions. Especially in February, the effects of the Russia-Ukraine war and possible supply problems may also reflect the surge in the energy bill to foreign trade data. Therefore, we expect the upward trend in general imports to continue and the increase in exports to be moderate. This effect will be seen for the first time numerically in the leading data to be announced by the Ministry of Commerce this week. Core imports will continue to slow down both with the decreasing consumption power and with macroprudential measures regarding individual finance. However, despite the improvement in gold imports and core imports, we expect the impact of energy imports to increase the foreign trade deficit.

Hibya Haber Ajansı